Executive Summary

What happens to the value of a Tesla Model S as the kilometers rack up? Using data from 209 Dutch listings on Marktplaats (June 20, 2025), we’ve run a linear regression to explore how mileage impacts resale price. The result? Depreciation is real but with a twist.

Key Findings

Slope: -0.1034 €/km
Intercept: €45,286.35
R²: 0.3620 (moderate fit)
P-value: 5.72e-22 (highly significant)

Interpretation

This regression suggests that for every additional kilometer on the odometer, a Tesla Model S loses about €0.10 in value. That might not sound like much... until you realize it means €10,340 in lost value over 100,000 km.

The intercept of €45,286 essentially predicts the instantaneous resale price of a second-hand Model S at 0 km. This is substantially below the current new price of around €83,000, highlighting how a Tesla’s value takes a sharp hit the moment it leaves the showroom.

Still, the chart shows a noticeable cluster of newer Teslas in the top left vehicles with low mileage that retain a high portion of their value.

These likely represent recent releases or well-kept models with premium specs. For example, there is a Tesla Model S Plaid AWD with Enhanced Autopilot 4.0 listed for €94,999. A top-tier configuration featuring tri-motor all-wheel drive, blistering 0–100 km/h acceleration in just over 2 seconds, and advanced driving features like Auto Lane Change and Smart Summon (albeit limited in Europe).

The Spread

Although the regression is linear, the scatter reveals a decreasing rate of depreciation beyond the 200,000 km mark. This indicates a depreciation floor: past a certain mileage, prices flatten, as the remaining value is largely dictated by functionality rather than prestige.

So yes, technically, your Model S will reach zero value at around 438,000 km. But if you’re really trying to prove a point, you’d need to drive 3,500,000 km to owe someone money to take it. (That’s 87 trips around the world. Better pack snacks.)

Methodology

Data Source: Tesla Model S listings on Marktplaats.nl
Sample Size: 209 listings across all model years
Date Collected: June 20, 2025
Contact for Dataset: Available via request at DriveDutch Contact Page

Outlook

Depreciation curves like this are essential for both buyers and sellers. For buyers, they identify pricing sweet spots in the second-hand market. For sellers, they clarify how mileage affects their return on investment.

As the electric vehicle market matures, we may see these depreciation floors shift upward, if Tesla continues to improve longevity and battery warranties. Until then, each kilometer driven is money burned... but at least it’s silent. Want to dive deeper into the Dutch second hand car market? Head over out to our market statistics page to learn more about the secondhand car market!