Do Higher First Attempt Success Rates Translate to Higher Second Attempt Rates?

This analysis explores the relationship between first and second attempt driving test success rates across Dutch driving schools. The scatter plot shows a moderate positive correlation between the two, captured by the regression line: y = 0.45x + 31.75. This suggests that driving schools with high first attempt pass rates generally tend to also perform better on second attempts, though the relationship is far from perfect. While many schools cluster between 40% and 70% on both metrics, there's significant spread, especially among schools with lower first attempt success rates. The positive slope implies that improved first-time preparation could also lead to better outcomes on retakes. To maintain statistical reliability, the analysis excluded schools with fewer than 5 exams or with 0% pass rates on either attempt. For international students or learners evaluating where to enroll, these results highlight the importance of selecting schools with consistently strong outcomes, not just on the first try, but in follow-up attempts as well.