Executive Summary

The Audi A3, a premium compact car well-regarded for its blend of performance, design, and quality, continues to perform solidly on the Dutch secondhand market. This report answers the key question: “What is the expected resale value of my Audi A3?”

Using real listings from Marktplaats.nl, we model how both age and mileage influence asking prices — giving owners and buyers a realistic benchmark based on 280 listings.

Key Insights

• A brand-new Audi A3 is estimated at €46,130.
• Each additional year reduces value by ~€2,693.
• Mileage shows a clear effect, with ~€0.102 loss per km.
• Price floor stabilizes around €4,000–€8,000 for older A3s.
• The model is based on 280 real listings, collected on July 21, 2025.

Coefficient Analysis

• Constant:
  Predicted price of a brand-new Audi A3.
  Significance: Highly significant

• Age (years):
  Strong negative effect — each additional year significantly reduces resale value.
  Significance: Highly significant

• Mileage (km):
  Clear downward pressure on price with increased mileage.
  Significance: Highly significant

• Age²:
  Slight curvature; may reflect some pricing stability in older models.
  Significance: Not significant

• Age × Mileage:
  Weak interaction — slightly softens depreciation at high mileage and age combinations.
  Significance: Significant

• Mileage²:
  Effectively zero impact in practical terms.
  Significance: Not significant

This polynomial regression shows statistically strong primary effects of age and mileage, with weaker contributions from higher-order terms.

Equation Used

Price ≈ 46130 - 2692·(age) - 0.1023·(mileage_km) + 25.80·(age²) + 0.00560·(age × mileage_km) - 0.00000·(mileage_km²)

This formula allows anyone to estimate their car’s resale value by plugging in its age and mileage. It reflects the broad pricing behavior observed on the Dutch market.

Market Value Guide

Based on the model:

• A 6-year-old Audi A3 with ~120,000 km might list for around €17,000–€19,000.
• A 12-year-old model with 200,000+ km would typically range from €6,000–€9,000.
• Audi A3s show steady depreciation for the first decade, then flatten out into a consistent low-value range.

The premium reputation of Audi means that older A3s retain value a bit better than other compact models, especially when well-maintained.

Methodology

• Sample Size: 280 listings
• Data Source: Marktplaats.nl
• Collection Date: July 21, 2025
• Model Type: Polynomial regression of degree 2 with interaction terms
• Target Variable: Asking price (EUR)

Final Thoughts

The Audi A3 retains value better than many non-premium hatchbacks, but it still follows a standard depreciation curve — with rapid early losses and price stability around the 12–15 year mark.

This analysis can help both sellers price competitively and buyers make informed decisions when browsing the used A3 market in the Netherlands.

Disclaimer: This analysis is based on listing data, not actual transaction prices. Vehicle condition, features, and market demand can vary by region and affect final sale value.