Do Busy Weeks Lower Pass Rates?

Understanding the Relationship Between Exam Volume and Pass Probability

This report analyses whether the number of practical driving exams taken in a given week influences the likelihood of passing. Using weekly CBR rijbewijs B data from October 2024 through September 2025, we compare exam volume (how many exams were conducted each week) with the pass rate for that same week.

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1. What does the data show?

The scatterplot above displays each week as a data point. Weeks with higher exam activity (5,000–7,000 exams) and quieter weeks (2,000–3,000 exams) are plotted against their corresponding pass percentages. A linear regression line was added to detect any trend.

Key statistics

• Pearson correlation: -0.1744
• p-value: 0.2117
• Interpretation: There is a slight downward slope, but the relationship is not statistically significant.

In other words:

There is no evidence that weeks with more exams result in a lower chance of passing.

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2. Why is the trend negative but not meaningful?

The small negative coefficient (-0.17) means the pass rate tends to dip very slightly during high-volume weeks. However, the p-value (0.21) is well above 0.05, meaning the pattern is too weak to confidently distinguish from random variation.

This suggests that factors such as:

• candidate skill,
• preparation quality,
• instructor guidance,
• exam centre characteristics,

matter far more than how busy CBR is in any given week.

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3. What does this mean for students?

“Should I avoid busy weeks if I want to pass?”

Based on the data: No.

There is no measurable disadvantage to taking your exam during high-volume periods. Even during the busiest weeks of the year—especially in spring and early summer—pass rates stay within the normal 47–50% band.

For learners, this means:

• Timing should depend on your readiness, not on the calendar.
• Choosing a less busy week won’t meaningfully boost your pass chances.
• It's far more important to book an exam date that aligns with your instructor’s recommendation and your own confidence level.

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4. What does this mean for driving schools?

“Should we avoid booking students during peak months?”

The data suggests there is no penalty for doing so.

Driving schools can:

• Continue scheduling exams during high-demand periods without fear of worse outcomes.
• Focus on lesson planning and exam preparation rather than volume-management strategies.
• Use peak seasons to increase throughput without compromising student success rates.

The understanding that exam volume does not depress pass rates can help schools plan teaching capacity, instructor availability, and exam bookings more efficiently.

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5. Summary

• There is a slight negative trend, but it is not statistically significant.
• Busier weeks do not reduce pass rates in any meaningful way.
• Students should book exams when they feel ready—not based on exam centre traffic.
• Driving schools can operate confidently during peak seasons without expecting worse results.

This finding supports a stable and consistent exam environment at CBR, where examiner capacity fluctuations do not materially affect student performance.