First Attempt vs Retake Passing Rates

Weekly Comparison of Normal and Second-Attempt Exams (Rijbewijs B)

This analysis compares first-attempt (normal) driving exams and second-attempt (retake/herexamen) exams across 53 weeks of CBR data, covering October 2024 through September 2025. The plotted lines show how both groups perform week by week and whether retake candidates pass at different rates than first-time candidates.

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1. What the chart shows

The graph displays two nearly parallel series:

• Blue line: First-time exam pass rates
• Yellow line: Retake exam pass rates

Across the entire year, both series fluctuate within a narrow 45–52% band. Most of the time, the two lines move in sync, rising and falling together with only small short-lived gaps between them.

Key insight:

Retake candidates do not systematically perform worse than first-time candidates.
Their average pass rates are almost identical.

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2. Descriptive statistics

Normal (first attempt) exams

• Average pass rate: 48.67%
• Standard deviation: 1.72%
• Range: 45.64% → 52.95%
• Total exams: 223,363
• Average per week: 4,214

Retake (second attempt) exams

• Average pass rate: 48.82%
• Standard deviation: 1.41%
• Range: 44.52% → 51.89%
• Total exams: 196,628
• Average per week: 3,709

Interpretation

• Retake pass rates have slightly lower variance, meaning the results are more stable from week to week.
• First-time pass rates show larger weekly swings, likely reflecting variation in candidate preparedness and exam-day factors.
• Crucially, the averages are nearly identical, contradicting the common belief that retaking the exam comes with a big disadvantage.

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3. Does retaking the exam improve or worsen your chances?

Surprisingly, neither. Retake candidates:

• Perform just as well on average
• Follow the same trend line as first-attempt candidates
• Only diverge for short periods, typically during holiday weeks or around winter dips

Short-term divergences

Some weeks show small gaps:

• Occasionally, retake candidates score slightly higher, possibly reflecting extra practice after failing a first exam.
• In other periods, first-timers score marginally better, likely due to differences in scheduling patterns or exam centre volume.

However, none of these deviations persist.
There is no evidence of a structural performance gap.

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4. What does this mean for students?

“If I fail once, are my chances worse the next time?”

Based on this dataset: No.

Your pass probability on the next attempt is almost identical to a first attempt, as long as you prepare adequately. Retaking does not put you at a statistical disadvantage.

For students:

• Don’t panic if you need a second attempt
• The exam process is consistent and fair across attempts
• Focus on improving your weak points rather than avoiding a retake

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5. What does this mean for driving schools?

Driving schools often wonder whether to prepare students differently after a failed first exam.

Key takeaways:

• Second-attempt candidates perform equally well, so schools should not adjust scheduling strategies simply out of fear of lower pass rates.
• The slightly smoother retake trend suggests that structured post-failure lessons may produce more consistent outcomes.
• Schools can reassure worried students that a retake does not lower their likelihood of passing.

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6. Summary

• First-time and retake pass rates are nearly identical:
  48.67% vs 48.82%.
• Weekly patterns move together with only mild fluctuations.
• Retake pass rates show slightly more stability, likely due to additional training.
• There is no systematic disadvantage for second-time candidates.
• Students should choose exam dates based on readiness—not fear of retakes.
• Driving schools can treat both groups similarly when planning lessons and exam bookings.

Overall, the data confirms that the CBR exam process is essentially consistent, fair, and stable, regardless of whether a candidate is on their first or second attempt. Albeit, your exam might be slightly easier in September if its your second attempt...